New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is one of the signature football players of this era, having topped 1,000 receiving yards three times in his seven seasons and reaching double-digit touchdowns in five of them. He has finished as fantasy’s top tight end in three of those seasons. But other than 2011, when Gronkowski emerged as one of the best players in fantasy and did so as a mid-round draft choice, he has never been a value pick, even for the healthy seasons. And as we all know by now, every season is certainly not a healthy season.
As a result, Gronkowski is an annual staple of my “Do Not Draft” list, which of course hardly means I wouldn’t draft the player, but rather that I wouldn’t draft him at the spot I would need to in order to secure him -- which remains in the second round. It’s an important distinction, but obviously all people will presume that I don’t like the players discussed below, which is far from the truth. After all, who could find fault with Gronkowski? He’s awesome and a blast at parties! Well, I like to load up on running backs and wide receivers in the first four or five rounds, and that doesn’t leave room for a tight end or, as you’ll see, a quarterback early on.
Gronkowski might end up as fantasy’s top tight end this season, and I’ve ranked him as fantasy’s top tight end, but fantasy’s top tight end is also a huge injury risk after missing more than half of the season's games in two of the past four years with various maladies. I don’t want to take the risk. In fact, while some picks need to be made for upside purposes, one should be more risk-averse in the early rounds. We all need only one tight end on our team, and drafting Gronkowski early means you probably need two. Plus, you’re missing out on some top-shelf talent to do so. Regardless, there’s a big name for you, and here are some others I won’t be drafting at the acquisition price it will cost, either using ESPN ADP (average draft position) or rough auction prices.
Quarterback
Like Gronkowski, Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s durable, so it might seem odd to include him here. His inclusion is all about drafting a quarterback -- any quarterback -- in the first several rounds. Nobody should be doing this in a 10-team standard (one-QB) format. Rodgers was fantasy’s top quarterback last season, and he has finished among the top two in seven of the past nine seasons. No quarterback is as safe as Rodgers. But there’s tremendous depth at quarterback, and you need running backs and wide receivers early, so let’s just include Tom Brady and Drew Brees in here as well.
Wait on your quarterbacks because they are always there late. In addition to the pretty obvious top tier at the position of Rodgers, Brady and Brees, I’m likely to avoid Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott and Ben Roethlisberger as well. Last year was the first time in Ryan’s nine seasons that he finished among the top five quarterbacks. Nobody denies Ryan was great, but there’s generally a Super Bowl hangover, and with Ryan, quite a bit went right for him to have his best year, including an interception rate he suddenly slashed in half. That seems unlikely to continue. Meanwhile, Luck has the shoulder issue, and as of today, he might be available for Week 1, but wouldn’t you prefer more clarity than that? Don’t be surprised when his entire September becomes perilous. There are so many healthy quarterbacks out there, and Luck is great when he’s on the field, but why take the chance?
As for Prescott, this isn’t some sophomore jinx thing. It’s also not about the absence of running back Ezekiel Elliott or the health of Dez Bryant, though I’ll be avoiding them as well. It’s about quarterbacks who rush for a bunch of touchdowns one season and then never do again. A mere three quarterbacks since 2002 have achieved multiple (and not just consecutive) five-rushing TD seasons (Cam Newton, Michael Vick and Tim Tebow). Prescott rushed for six touchdowns. Jameis Winston did this a year prior, and then he fell to one rushing touchdown. Prescott isn’t among my top 10 QBs.
With Roethlisberger, until now he has been annually selected as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but he has finished that way in only one of the past seven seasons. He not only misses games, but he’s well below average in road games, virtually unusable and worse than Brees ever was out of New Orleans. I want to draft only one quarterback and wait until the bye weeks to find one more, not draft a guy who misses games and must be platooned for half the season. Relying on Roethlisberger makes that difficult to do, but it also reminds fantasy owners that just because a team has a top running back and a top wide receiver, it doesn’t mean it has a top statistical quarterback. And just to show some accountability here, the “Do Not Draft” quarterbacks last year included Cam Newton (that was prescient) and Blake Bortles (a year too early, it appears, but on the right track).
Running back
Not to pick on the Cowboys, but the Ezekiel Elliott suspension is currently at six games, and including the Dallas bye week, it means he won’t be playing until Week 8. Are you kidding me? Elliott’s new ADP has him going in Round 3. My colleague Mike Clay, a likable and smart fellow, is totally on board with Elliott in Round 3, claiming he’ll still outscore -- in half the games -- quite a few running backs we’ve got targeted as top-20 options, including Isaiah Crowell. That might be true, but selecting Elliott in Round 3 over many relatively safe flex options (running back or wide receiver) isn’t worth it to me. It’s half the fantasy regular season, bench spots are valuable and it’s hard to take risks in the middle rounds because you’ve already taken a large one and made your team short-handed for half the season on a top pick.
After that, there are two others generally regarded as top-20 running backs who I’ll avoid. One is Marshawn Lynch. Yes, the season in brief retirement would suggest his body should be rested, as linebackers weren’t regularly driving helmets into his thighs, but we have no idea what Lynch did with his body in that time. He’s 31 now, and most running backs see stark decline by that point. He’s not a noted pass-catcher, and we’re talking about PPR formats here. There were some underlying signs of success for him statistically with Seattle in 2015, mainly how he was able to break tackles, and on a per-volume basis he might top what Latavius Murray achieved last year, but I don’t see the volume, and there’s downside here few seem to be interested in.
The other top-20 running back who I’ll ignore is Spencer Ware of the Kansas City Chiefs. He rushed for three touchdowns last season on 214 attempts, and that’s with many goal-line chances. He rushed for 70 yards in zero contests after Week 6, and rookie Kareem Hunt should get every opportunity to take the starting job, perhaps like Chicago’s Jordan Howard did last season.
Who else? Glad you asked! In order of current ADP, let’s throw in new Seahawk Eddie Lacy, the Lions’ Ameer Abdullah and the Jets’ Matt Forte. Maybe Lacy really is in fine shape, but he wasn’t good in either of the past two seasons and he won’t be catching passes. When in doubt, go with pass-catchers in PPR. Abdullah won’t be asked to catch many passes, either, since Theo Riddick is there, and surely neither is a lock to stay the least bit healthy. And Forte? He's a Jet. I definitely like Bilal Powell more, but he’s a Jet, too. Try to avoid Jets, or for purposes of this blog, “Do Not Draft Jets.”
As for last year, Carlos Hyde, Jonathan Stewart, Jeremy Langford, DeMarco Murray, T.J. Yeldon and Ryan Mathews were mentioned. While Murray obviously returned to stardom and great relevance and was a big miss by me, the others generally disappointed or, in the cases of Langford and Yeldon, didn’t matter at all because they simply weren’t that good.
Wide receiver
The sudden trade of Sammy Watkins from Buffalo to Los Angeles seems to have already done quite a bit of harm to his ADP and might actually push him into a round that makes him a reasonable bargain, but he still qualifies for this list for now. Sure, we know how talented he is. We also know the many foot problems remain and now he’s got Jared Goff problems, too. But he will be able to avoid snow, so there is a positive.
Not to cop out, but there aren’t many other relevant wide receivers I see with value disproportionate to ADP, so it likely will come down to sheer expectations. For example, do you want to believe what Allen Robinson achieved in 2015 can be duplicated, or that last season's mighty disappointment is more likely? I tend to think the problems Bortles had in finding Robinson last season are realistic and painful and will result in relative disappointment again if the cost is a top-20 option. The current ADP is not top-20. Similarly, the ADP of Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin is currently Round 6 and Brandon Marshall is going in the eighth, but again, their lofty names could get them overrated, and I just don’t see pending production commensurate with expectations. So I will not draft them.
When it comes to talented Tyreek Hill and Martavis Bryant, I’ll repeat a stance from previous “Do Not Draft” blog entries: When in doubt, lean on receivers who catch many passes and be wary of those who do not. It’s the DeSean Jackson theory, and only once in Jackson’s career has he reached 65 receptions, and it isn’t happening in 2017. Hill caught 61 passes for 593 yards last season from a quarterback who doesn’t throw downfield well. I actually think Hill can get to 75 and 900, respectively, but the touchdowns will drop. He might not even participate in the return game. Bryant, should he be reinstated by the league to play as expected, is also overly dependent on touchdowns, having scored 15 in 21 career games on 76 catches. The touchdown rate can’t continue.
<article class="ad-300"></article>Most of the “Do Not Draft” choices from last season actually looked wise, with Kelvin Benjamin, DeSean Jackson, Allen Hurns, Stefon Diggs and Markus Wheaton all finishing outside the top 25 scorers at the position. However, Seattle’s Doug Baldwin was very good. I won’t make that mistake again this year presuming the Seahawks will run, run and run some more.
Tight end
I really don’t have concerns about Rob Gronkowski being an excellent fantasy option. When he plays, he tends to play well. The problem is he’d need to play great, and pretty much every week, to earn his Round 2 draft status, and the argument that a fantasy owner wins the tight end battle versus his opponent every week with Gronk doesn’t fly so well, because he’s a major injury risk at any point. And who cares about winning the tight end battle? There’s a larger battle.
One can draft Cincinnati’s Tyler Eifert myriad rounds later, but his problem isn’t merely health. Eifert is so dependent on touchdowns, having averaged a mere 3.3 catches per game. He’s just not targeted enough and is a strong bet to miss multiple games. Gronkowski, Eifert and the overrated Coby Fleener were on this list last August, and I think it’s fair to include Jordan Reed this time around. Similarly to Gronkowski and Eifert, he can’t help you from the sidelines, and while there’s upside, the downside is having to roster multiple tight ends.
As a result, Gronkowski is an annual staple of my “Do Not Draft” list, which of course hardly means I wouldn’t draft the player, but rather that I wouldn’t draft him at the spot I would need to in order to secure him -- which remains in the second round. It’s an important distinction, but obviously all people will presume that I don’t like the players discussed below, which is far from the truth. After all, who could find fault with Gronkowski? He’s awesome and a blast at parties! Well, I like to load up on running backs and wide receivers in the first four or five rounds, and that doesn’t leave room for a tight end or, as you’ll see, a quarterback early on.
Gronkowski might end up as fantasy’s top tight end this season, and I’ve ranked him as fantasy’s top tight end, but fantasy’s top tight end is also a huge injury risk after missing more than half of the season's games in two of the past four years with various maladies. I don’t want to take the risk. In fact, while some picks need to be made for upside purposes, one should be more risk-averse in the early rounds. We all need only one tight end on our team, and drafting Gronkowski early means you probably need two. Plus, you’re missing out on some top-shelf talent to do so. Regardless, there’s a big name for you, and here are some others I won’t be drafting at the acquisition price it will cost, either using ESPN ADP (average draft position) or rough auction prices.
Quarterback
Like Gronkowski, Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s durable, so it might seem odd to include him here. His inclusion is all about drafting a quarterback -- any quarterback -- in the first several rounds. Nobody should be doing this in a 10-team standard (one-QB) format. Rodgers was fantasy’s top quarterback last season, and he has finished among the top two in seven of the past nine seasons. No quarterback is as safe as Rodgers. But there’s tremendous depth at quarterback, and you need running backs and wide receivers early, so let’s just include Tom Brady and Drew Brees in here as well.
Wait on your quarterbacks because they are always there late. In addition to the pretty obvious top tier at the position of Rodgers, Brady and Brees, I’m likely to avoid Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott and Ben Roethlisberger as well. Last year was the first time in Ryan’s nine seasons that he finished among the top five quarterbacks. Nobody denies Ryan was great, but there’s generally a Super Bowl hangover, and with Ryan, quite a bit went right for him to have his best year, including an interception rate he suddenly slashed in half. That seems unlikely to continue. Meanwhile, Luck has the shoulder issue, and as of today, he might be available for Week 1, but wouldn’t you prefer more clarity than that? Don’t be surprised when his entire September becomes perilous. There are so many healthy quarterbacks out there, and Luck is great when he’s on the field, but why take the chance?
As for Prescott, this isn’t some sophomore jinx thing. It’s also not about the absence of running back Ezekiel Elliott or the health of Dez Bryant, though I’ll be avoiding them as well. It’s about quarterbacks who rush for a bunch of touchdowns one season and then never do again. A mere three quarterbacks since 2002 have achieved multiple (and not just consecutive) five-rushing TD seasons (Cam Newton, Michael Vick and Tim Tebow). Prescott rushed for six touchdowns. Jameis Winston did this a year prior, and then he fell to one rushing touchdown. Prescott isn’t among my top 10 QBs.
With Roethlisberger, until now he has been annually selected as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but he has finished that way in only one of the past seven seasons. He not only misses games, but he’s well below average in road games, virtually unusable and worse than Brees ever was out of New Orleans. I want to draft only one quarterback and wait until the bye weeks to find one more, not draft a guy who misses games and must be platooned for half the season. Relying on Roethlisberger makes that difficult to do, but it also reminds fantasy owners that just because a team has a top running back and a top wide receiver, it doesn’t mean it has a top statistical quarterback. And just to show some accountability here, the “Do Not Draft” quarterbacks last year included Cam Newton (that was prescient) and Blake Bortles (a year too early, it appears, but on the right track).
Running back
Not to pick on the Cowboys, but the Ezekiel Elliott suspension is currently at six games, and including the Dallas bye week, it means he won’t be playing until Week 8. Are you kidding me? Elliott’s new ADP has him going in Round 3. My colleague Mike Clay, a likable and smart fellow, is totally on board with Elliott in Round 3, claiming he’ll still outscore -- in half the games -- quite a few running backs we’ve got targeted as top-20 options, including Isaiah Crowell. That might be true, but selecting Elliott in Round 3 over many relatively safe flex options (running back or wide receiver) isn’t worth it to me. It’s half the fantasy regular season, bench spots are valuable and it’s hard to take risks in the middle rounds because you’ve already taken a large one and made your team short-handed for half the season on a top pick.
After that, there are two others generally regarded as top-20 running backs who I’ll avoid. One is Marshawn Lynch. Yes, the season in brief retirement would suggest his body should be rested, as linebackers weren’t regularly driving helmets into his thighs, but we have no idea what Lynch did with his body in that time. He’s 31 now, and most running backs see stark decline by that point. He’s not a noted pass-catcher, and we’re talking about PPR formats here. There were some underlying signs of success for him statistically with Seattle in 2015, mainly how he was able to break tackles, and on a per-volume basis he might top what Latavius Murray achieved last year, but I don’t see the volume, and there’s downside here few seem to be interested in.
The other top-20 running back who I’ll ignore is Spencer Ware of the Kansas City Chiefs. He rushed for three touchdowns last season on 214 attempts, and that’s with many goal-line chances. He rushed for 70 yards in zero contests after Week 6, and rookie Kareem Hunt should get every opportunity to take the starting job, perhaps like Chicago’s Jordan Howard did last season.
Who else? Glad you asked! In order of current ADP, let’s throw in new Seahawk Eddie Lacy, the Lions’ Ameer Abdullah and the Jets’ Matt Forte. Maybe Lacy really is in fine shape, but he wasn’t good in either of the past two seasons and he won’t be catching passes. When in doubt, go with pass-catchers in PPR. Abdullah won’t be asked to catch many passes, either, since Theo Riddick is there, and surely neither is a lock to stay the least bit healthy. And Forte? He's a Jet. I definitely like Bilal Powell more, but he’s a Jet, too. Try to avoid Jets, or for purposes of this blog, “Do Not Draft Jets.”
As for last year, Carlos Hyde, Jonathan Stewart, Jeremy Langford, DeMarco Murray, T.J. Yeldon and Ryan Mathews were mentioned. While Murray obviously returned to stardom and great relevance and was a big miss by me, the others generally disappointed or, in the cases of Langford and Yeldon, didn’t matter at all because they simply weren’t that good.
Wide receiver
The sudden trade of Sammy Watkins from Buffalo to Los Angeles seems to have already done quite a bit of harm to his ADP and might actually push him into a round that makes him a reasonable bargain, but he still qualifies for this list for now. Sure, we know how talented he is. We also know the many foot problems remain and now he’s got Jared Goff problems, too. But he will be able to avoid snow, so there is a positive.
Not to cop out, but there aren’t many other relevant wide receivers I see with value disproportionate to ADP, so it likely will come down to sheer expectations. For example, do you want to believe what Allen Robinson achieved in 2015 can be duplicated, or that last season's mighty disappointment is more likely? I tend to think the problems Bortles had in finding Robinson last season are realistic and painful and will result in relative disappointment again if the cost is a top-20 option. The current ADP is not top-20. Similarly, the ADP of Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin is currently Round 6 and Brandon Marshall is going in the eighth, but again, their lofty names could get them overrated, and I just don’t see pending production commensurate with expectations. So I will not draft them.
When it comes to talented Tyreek Hill and Martavis Bryant, I’ll repeat a stance from previous “Do Not Draft” blog entries: When in doubt, lean on receivers who catch many passes and be wary of those who do not. It’s the DeSean Jackson theory, and only once in Jackson’s career has he reached 65 receptions, and it isn’t happening in 2017. Hill caught 61 passes for 593 yards last season from a quarterback who doesn’t throw downfield well. I actually think Hill can get to 75 and 900, respectively, but the touchdowns will drop. He might not even participate in the return game. Bryant, should he be reinstated by the league to play as expected, is also overly dependent on touchdowns, having scored 15 in 21 career games on 76 catches. The touchdown rate can’t continue.
<article class="ad-300"></article>Most of the “Do Not Draft” choices from last season actually looked wise, with Kelvin Benjamin, DeSean Jackson, Allen Hurns, Stefon Diggs and Markus Wheaton all finishing outside the top 25 scorers at the position. However, Seattle’s Doug Baldwin was very good. I won’t make that mistake again this year presuming the Seahawks will run, run and run some more.
Tight end
I really don’t have concerns about Rob Gronkowski being an excellent fantasy option. When he plays, he tends to play well. The problem is he’d need to play great, and pretty much every week, to earn his Round 2 draft status, and the argument that a fantasy owner wins the tight end battle versus his opponent every week with Gronk doesn’t fly so well, because he’s a major injury risk at any point. And who cares about winning the tight end battle? There’s a larger battle.
One can draft Cincinnati’s Tyler Eifert myriad rounds later, but his problem isn’t merely health. Eifert is so dependent on touchdowns, having averaged a mere 3.3 catches per game. He’s just not targeted enough and is a strong bet to miss multiple games. Gronkowski, Eifert and the overrated Coby Fleener were on this list last August, and I think it’s fair to include Jordan Reed this time around. Similarly to Gronkowski and Eifert, he can’t help you from the sidelines, and while there’s upside, the downside is having to roster multiple tight ends.
